On Tuesday, March New York world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed up 0.37 (+2.59%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) rose 12.40 (+3.06%). This increase follows a drop earlier in the week, where NY sugar hit a 2.5-month low and London sugar dropped to a five-year low. The surge is attributed to a weaker dollar prompting short covering in sugar futures.
Projected global sugar surpluses are significant, with Green Pool Commodity Specialists estimating a 2.74 million metric ton (MMT) surplus for 2025/26 and StoneX projecting a 2.9 MMT surplus in the same year. Brazil’s sugar output for the 2025-26 season is anticipated to rise by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, according to Unica, while India’s output from October 1 to January 15 shows a 22% year-on-year increase to 15.9 MMT.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 1.625 MMT surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, against a backdrop of rising global production, which is expected to reach a record 181.8 million MT. In contrast, the USDA predicts that both Brazil and India will see significant increases in sugar production, estimating that India’s production could rise by 25% year-on-year to 35.25 MMT.
