As of today, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) has increased by 0.13 to 16.43 (+0.80%), while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) rose by 2.60 to 487.60 (+0.54%). This surge follows a drop in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 3.5-week low, prompting short covering in sugar futures.
Recent data reveals that China’s sugar imports rose by 76% in July to 740,000 metric tons (MT), while Pakistan has tendered for 200,000 MT of refined sugar. Conversely, Brazil’s sugar production outlook is under pressure, with a reported decrease of 0.8% year-on-year to 3,614 MT in the second half of July. Additionally, forecasts indicate an increase in India’s sugar production to 35 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025/26, a 19% year-on-year rise, which could negatively impact sugar prices globally.
The global sugar market faces a potential surplus with the USDA predicting global sugar production to reach a record 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, and a projected ending stock of 41.188 MMT. Thailand is also expected to see a production increase of 14% year-on-year to 10 MMT in 2024/25, further contributing to a bearish price outlook.
