On Thursday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed at 14.33 cents per pound, up +0.13 (+0.91%), while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) increased to $426.70 per metric ton, up +0.70 (+0.17%). Sugar prices remain below recent two-month highs, influenced by a significant +7% rise in crude oil prices, which encourages sugar mills to produce ethanol instead of sugar, thereby limiting sugar supply.
Analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year. This follows forecasts from various organizations, including a +1.22 MMT surplus for 2025/26 by the International Sugar Organization (ISO), attributed to increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Conversely, Brazil’s sugar production has faced declines, with a reported 36% year-over-year drop in the latter half of January.
India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, reported a 12% increase in its 2025/26 sugar output to 29.3 MMT. Additionally, the Indian government has approved an extra 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025/26 season, increasing total approved exports to 2 million MT. The USDA projects global sugar production to rise by +4.6% year-over-year, reaching 189.318 MMT, while human sugar consumption is estimated to increase to 177.921 MMT.
