March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed on January 13, 2023, at $14.91, up $0.39 or 2.68%. Simultaneously, March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) increased by $10.20, a 2.44% gain. The rise in sugar prices follows fund short covering ahead of the Martin Luther King Day holiday, during which U.S. markets will be closed on January 16.
Significant developments include India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. reporting a 21% increase in sugar output for the 2025-26 season, projecting production to reach 15.9 million metric tons (MMT), and Brazil’s output rising to 40.158 MMT, a 0.9% year-on-year increase. These factors, alongside potential increases in sugar exports from India and a global sugar surplus forecasted at 4.7 MMT for the 2025-26 season, are contributing to bearish pressures on sugar prices.
The outlook remains cautious as the International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.625 million MT surplus for 2025-26, driven primarily by rising production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Notably, Brazil’s sugar production is expected to grow by 2.3% year-on-year to a record 44.7 MMT.
