**Sugar Prices Surge Amid Global Supply Concerns**
On Thursday, October NY sugar #11 futures closed up 2.41%, reaching a 15-month high, while October London ICE white sugar #5 rose 2.00%, achieving a 17-month high. The European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory estimates a 19% year-over-year decline in EU sugar production for 2026/27, projecting only 13.4 million metric tons (MMT) produced. Green Pool Commodity Specialists anticipates a global sugar deficit of 3.2 MMT for the same year, a significant adjustment from previous surplus estimates.
India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, has opened the door for up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports tax-free until October 31, signaling supply strain as the country shifts from its typical exporter role. Weather concerns, particularly the likelihood of an El Niño event, could further disrupt production in Brazil, India, and Thailand, exacerbating the global supply crisis. In Brazil, production has already dipped significantly, marked by a 26.3% year-over-year fall to 3.9 MMT for June.
The USDA predicts a 6.5% decline in global sugar production for the 2026/27 cycle, down to 184.854 MMT, which comes amid an expected increase in human consumption by 0.4%.
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