On Tuesday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed at $0.02 (+0.14%), while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) rose by $0.80 (+0.19%). Sugar prices gained modestly, influenced by a surge in crude oil prices, which rose over 4% to hit an 8.5-month high. This increase may lead sugar producers to prioritize ethanol production, thus reducing sugar supplies.
Current projections indicate a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) revised its 2025-26 surplus forecast to 1.22 MMT, down from 1.63 MMT. Increased sugar production in countries like India, Thailand, and Pakistan is expected to drive this surplus, with India’s output for 2025-26 estimated at 29.3 MMT, a 12% year-on-year increase.
Production challenges persist, particularly in Brazil, where sugar output in the Center-South region fell by 36% year-on-year in January, though cumulative production remains 0.9% higher. Brazil’s sugar production is projected to decline by 3.91% in 2026/27 to 41.8 MMT, with exports expected to fall by 11% year-on-year to 30 MMT.
