**Sugar Prices Rise Amid Market Dynamics**
As of May, NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) increased by 3.33%, reaching a rise of +0.47 cents, while London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) climbed 1.38%, gaining +5.70 cents. The surge in oil prices, sparked by recent Israeli attacks on Iranian oil depots, is influencing ethanol prices and incentivizing sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production. This shift is likely to constrain sugar supplies in the market.
Concerns of a global sugar surplus persist, with analysts projecting a surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, building on an anticipated stock of 8.3 MMT for 2025/26. The International Sugar Organization adjusted its 2025-26 surplus forecast down to +1.22 MMT, attributing increases in sugar production to countries like India and Thailand. Notably, India’s sugar production for the current season is expected to hit 29.3 MMT, a 12% increase from the previous year, aligning with its government’s recent approval of an additional 500,000 MT for export for the 2025/26 season.
