On Monday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed up 0.49 cents (+3.48%), while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) rose by 6.00 cents (+1.45%). Sugar prices surged primarily due to rising oil prices following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian oil depots, which may lead sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production, thus restricting sugar supply.
As of February 2023, global sugar production projections indicate surpluses of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, based on expectations from analysts and organizations like the International Sugar Organization (ISO). In India, the 2025/26 sugar output could hit 29.3 MMT, marking a 12% year-over-year increase, while India’s government recently approved an additional 500,000 MT for export this season.
Global sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 4.6% year-over-year to a record 189.318 MMT, while consumption is expected to rise by 1.4% to 177.921 MMT, leading to lower ending stocks of 41.188 MMT, according to USDA forecasts.
