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On Friday, October NY world sugar #11 closed at +0.08 (+0.52%) and December London ICE white sugar #5 closed at +1.10 (+0.24%). This upward movement followed a sharp decline earlier in the week, where NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low and London sugar reached a 4-year low due to increased sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output rose by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons in the second half of August, though cumulative sugar output through August for the 2025-26 season fell -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons.
India is also contributing to global sugar dynamics; Sucden announced that India might divert 4 million tons to ethanol in 2025/26, prompting potential exports of an additional 4 million tons beyond previous forecasts. This comes amidst expectations of increased sugar production in India, with estimates suggesting a +19% year-on-year rise to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season. Furthermore, recent trends indicate that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar over ethanol production due to drier cane crops.
Global sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected to rise +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons, while consumption is expected to increase +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 million tons, according to the International Sugar Organization. A global sugar deficit of -231,000 tons is anticipated for the same period, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits.
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