On Tuesday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed up +0.05 (+0.34%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) rose +3.90 (+0.92%). This increase in sugar prices comes amid expectations of $1.2 billion inflows into sugar futures contracts as part of the annual rebalancing of major commodity indexes, including BCOM and S&P GSCI.
However, the outlook remains mixed for future prices. Brazil’s sugar production for 2025-26 is projected to rise by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 million metric tons (MMT), potentially impacting price stability. Conversely, India’s cumulative 2025-26 sugar production is anticipated to jump by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, with overall Indian sugar production expected to rise to 31 MMT, leading to pressures on global sugar prices. The USDA projects worldwide sugar production will reach a record 189.318 MMT in 2025-26, outpacing consumption growth.
