On December 16, 2023, sugar prices rose, with March NY world sugar #11 up by 1.67% and March London ICE white sugar #5 up by 1.41%. This increase follows a forecast by consulting firm Safras & Mercado that Brazil’s sugar production will decline by 3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2026/27 season.
Conversely, India’s sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT, a year-over-year increase of 18.8%. The International Sugar Organization projected a surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
The USDA forecasts global sugar production to rise by 4.6% in 2025/26 to 189.318 MMT, while consumption is expected to grow by 1.4% to 177.921 MMT. Brazil’s production is projected to hit a record 44.7 MMT, and India is expected to increase production to 35.25 MMT.
