October NY world sugar #11 rose by +0.39 (+2.38%) to $16.74, while October London ICE white sugar #5 increased by +10.10 (+1.99%) to $517.10. Despite the rally, prices remain below the 1.25-year highs observed earlier this week.
Global sugar production faces challenges due to adverse weather conditions. In the European Union and UK, production is projected to decline to 14.98 million metric tons (MMT) in 2023, the lowest in 11 years, reports S&P Global Energy. Meanwhile, Brazil’s June sugar production fell 26.3% year-over-year to 3.903 MMT, and India’s monsoon rainfall remains 12% below normal, forecasted to further impact sugar output.
As a result, analysts are revising global sugar supply forecasts, with Covrig Analytics predicting a deficit of 300,000 MT for 2026/27, a stark contrast from earlier surplus projections. The International Sugar Organization anticipates global sugar production will decline by 1.15% year-over-year, leading to a deficit of 262,000 MT, primarily due to El Niño’s expected disruption in top-producing regions.
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