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On October 2, 2023, NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) increased by +0.25 (+1.60%) and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) rose by +3.30 (+0.74%) as a weaker dollar prompted short covering in sugar futures. Earlier that day, NY sugar fell to a 3-week low, while London sugar dropped to a 4.25-year low.
The BMI Group projected a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT), and Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 MMT. In light of this, India’s 2025/26 sugar production is expected to rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a decline in 2024/25 to 26.2 MMT. Thailand is also forecasting a +5% increase in its sugar crop for the same season, reaching 10.5 MMT.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season of -231,000 MMT, while the USDA predicts a surge in global sugar production to a record 189.318 MMT, driven by favorable conditions in major producing countries.
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