Suncor Energy Set to Announce Q1 Earnings on May 6
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) will report its first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 6, following the market’s close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipates earnings of 86 cents per share, with revenue expected at $8.34 billion.
Before diving into potential impacts on SU’s upcoming performance, let’s review how the company fared in the last reported quarter.
Q4 Earnings Overview
In the most recent quarter, this Alberta-based integrated oil and gas firm surpassed earnings forecasts, reporting 89 cents per share, which exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents. Strong production growth in its upstream segment contributed to this success, alongside operating revenues of $8.9 billion that outperformed the expectations by 4.3%.
SU has consistently met or exceeded earnings estimates over the past four quarters, achieving an average surprise of 17.58%.
This is illustrated in the graph below:
Suncor Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Suncor Energy Inc. price-EPS surprise graph
Estimate Revision Trends
Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings remains unchanged over the last week. This estimate represents an 18.10% year-over-year decline, while the revenue expectation suggests a decrease of 10.21% compared to the same quarter last year.
Key Factors to Consider Before SU’s Q1 Release
Suncor Energy operates across three primary segments that drive its financial performance. In its Oil Sands division, the company extracts and processes oil, producing both crude and synthetic oil. Its Exploration and Production segment involves offshore oil and gas fields, contributing crude oil and natural gas sales. Lastly, the Refining and Marketing segment converts crude into products such as gasoline and diesel, sold through retail channels.
For the first quarter, Suncor is projected to process 462 million barrels of crude oil per day (mbbls/d), representing a 6.7 mbbls/d increase from Q1 2024. Oil sands production is expected to hit 792 mbbls/d, a rise of 7 mbbls/d year-over-year, with refinery utilization anticipated to reach 99% compared to 98% in the previous year.
However, external market conditions may pose challenges to profitability. Despite higher production, weak oil prices and narrowing refining margins could constrict revenue growth, impacting earnings. Moreover, fluctuations in refining crack spreads and fuel demand are likely to exert pressure on downstream margins.
Inflationary pressures and rising operational costs, including labor, might further inhibit profitability in the upcoming quarter.
Performance Predictions for SU
According to the Zacks model, a definitive earnings beat for Suncor Energy is uncertain this time. A positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold) typically enhances the likelihood of a surprise; however, that criteria are not met for SU.
Earnings ESP for SU: The earnings ESP, calculated as the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, stands at -5.60%. SU currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3.
Stocks to Watch in the Energy Sector
Here are some companies in the energy sector with favorable conditions for an earnings beat this season:
ConocoPhillips (COP) has an earnings ESP of +1.87% and currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3. The company is set to announce its earnings on May 8. Headquartered in Houston, TX, ConocoPhillips focuses on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas.
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) shows an earnings ESP of +15.32% with a Zacks Rank of #3. Calumet is scheduled for an earnings release on May 9, specializing in a range of specialty branded products and renewable fuels.
APA Corporation (APA) boasts an earnings ESP of +4.65% with a Zacks Rank of #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APA’s 2025 earnings per share suggests a year-over-year growth of 3.85%. Based in Houston, TX, APA engages in the exploration, development, and production of various energy resources, with earnings set to be released on May 7.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
