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As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH25) is trading up by +0.24 (+1.09%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ24) is up +7.90 (+1.42%). This increase is attributed to a rally in the Brazilian real against the dollar, which discourages sugar exports from Brazil.
Recent reports highlight a rise in Brazil’s Center-South sugar output during the first half of October, which increased by +8% year-over-year to 2.443 million metric tons (MMT). However, recent drought conditions have caused significant crop losses due to fires affecting up to 80,000 hectares, with estimates of up to 5 MMT of sugar cane lost. Forecasts for the upcoming crop year suggest a reduction in Brazil’s sugar production, adjusted down to 39.3 MMT from 40.3 MMT due to ongoing drought conditions.
Global sugar dynamics are also influenced by India’s 2024/25 projected sugar production of 33.3 MMT, a decrease of -2% year-over-year, alongside Thailand’s expected production increase of +18% to 10.35 MMT. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of -3.58 MMT for 2024/25, compared to a smaller deficit of -200,000 MT for the current year.
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