July ICE NY cocoa closed Wednesday at $4,126 per ton, up $61 (+1.50%), while July ICE London cocoa reached $3,080 per ton, up $37 (+1.21%). Cocoa prices reached 2.75-month and 3-month highs, respectively, due to below-average cherelle formation in West Africa, indicating a weak upcoming harvest starting in October.
Recent data indicates that funds have increased their short positions in NY cocoa to the highest level in over three years, with 19,885 net-short positions. In contrast, the global cocoa surplus for 2026/27 has been adjusted to 149,000 MT, down from 267,000 MT, due to potential impacts from an El Niño weather event.
While North American cocoa grindings fell by 3.8% year-on-year to 106,087 MT in Q1, and European grindings decreased by 7.8% to 325,895 MT, Q1 Asian grindings surprisingly rose by 5.2% to 223,503 MT. Current ICE cocoa inventories are at a 20.5-month high of 2,667,760 bags, amidst ongoing drought concerns in Ivory Coast and Ghana, both of which produce over half of the world’s cocoa.
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