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As of today, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) is down 1.05% to $71, marking an 11-month nearest-futures low, while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) declined 0.70% to $33, reaching a 19-month low. The drop is primarily attributed to the oversupply in the global cocoa market, with Ghana cocoa deliveries surging to 50,440 MT in the four weeks ending September 4, compared to about 11,000 MT during the same period in 2024.
The outlook for cocoa prices is further pressured by high cocoa prices dampening chocolate demand, as evidenced by industry giants like Lindt & Sprüngli AG lowering their margin guidance and Barry Callebaut AG revising its sales volume forecast downward for the second time in three months. Cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast have also seen a slowdown, with shipments up 3.4% year-over-year this marketing year but significantly less than in previous months.
Additionally, Rabobank noted that quality issues in the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop could support prices, with the mid-crop estimated at 400,000 MT, down 9% from last year. The International Cocoa Organization has projected a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT for the 2023/24 year, while a surplus of 142,000 MT is expected for 2024/25.
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