On Thursday, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up +8.00 (+2.73%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) increased by +90 (+2.51%), driven by a disruption in global shipping due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has raised costs for coffee importers and roasters. This closure, coupled with a decline in ICE robusta inventories to a 2-month low of 4,285 lots, contributed to the rise in prices.
Despite the recent price increases, market experts face potential bearish pressures as Brazil is expected to produce a record 75.3 million bags of coffee for the 2026/27 season, up from a previous estimate of 70.7 million bags. Additionally, February’s coffee exports from Brazil fell by 27% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags, indicating a complex supply landscape amid rising production forecasts.
Looking ahead, Vietnam’s coffee exports have soared, with a 14% increase reported for January-February 2026, totaling 366,000 MT. The International Coffee Organization noted a slight decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year by -0.3% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing market volatility.
