WTI crude oil prices increased by $1.79 (+3.10%) to reach a one-month high today, fueled by rising tensions in Iran, which produces over 3 million barrels per day (bpd). Concurrently, RBOB gasoline prices rose by $0.0352 (+2.00%). Protests against the Iranian government have escalated, prompting concerns about potential disruptions in crude production.
Positive economic indicators from the U.S. also support energy demand; the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, while the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index showed a rise to 54.0 in January. In contrast, concerns arise from forecasts of a potential surplus in the global oil market, prompting Morgan Stanley to cut its Q1 crude price forecast to $57.50/bbl.
Reports indicate that U.S. crude oil production slightly decreased to 13.811 million bpd, while active oil rigs increased by three to a total of 412. Additionally, OPEC+ has announced plans to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026 due to anticipated global supply surpluses.
