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On October 23, 2023, sugar prices reached three-week highs, with March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) up 3.25% and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) up 2.98%. This surge followed India’s announcement that it would allow mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, a reduction from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, amidst smaller sugar supplies due to production issues exacerbated by late rains.
Conversely, Brazil anticipates record sugar production, raising its 2025/26 estimate to 45 MMT. This comes as Brazil’s Center-South sugar output rose 16.4% year-on-year to 2.068 million tons in October, raising cumulative production through October to 38.085 MMT. Additionally, India’s sugar production forecast for 2025/26 has increased to 31 MMT, with a strong monsoon enhancing planting and yields.
Globally, the International Sugar Organization projects a deficit of 231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, while the USDA forecasts production will climb to record levels, with Brazil at 44.7 MMT and India at 35.3 MMT. Overall, global sugar consumption is expected to rise slightly, indicating a complex market landscape ahead.
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