On Wednesday, October NY world sugar #11 closed at $16.56, rising by 2.67%, while August London ICE white sugar #5 closed at $492.70, increasing 3.51%. This surge in sugar prices resulted from short covering in futures, driven by global supply concerns following Pakistan’s announcement to import 500,000 MT and the Philippines’ decision to import 424,000 MT of sugar.
Despite Wednesday’s gains, sugar prices have significantly declined over the past three months, recently recording lows due to expectations of a global surplus. The USDA projected a record 189.3 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025/26 sugar production, indicating a 4.7% annual increase, with global ending stocks rising to 41.2 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.
The outlook for sugar production in India, projected to rise by 19% to 35 MMT for 2025/26, coupled with increased rainfall forecasts, remains bearish for prices. Meanwhile, Brazil’s sugar output is predicted to drop by 3.4% to 44.1 MMT for 2024/25 due to adverse weather, creating some support for sugar prices.
