**Sugar Prices Rise Amid Yield Concerns**
On October 3, 2023, New York world sugar #11 closed up 2.06% to $17.85, while December London ICE white sugar #5 increased by 1.07% to $508.50. The rise follows the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) unit revising its 2026 sugar beet yield estimate down to 67.4 MT per hectare due to dry conditions. This is a significant decrease from the previous estimate of 72.2 MT per hectare, contributing to higher sugar prices as the market anticipates supply shortages.
Key projections indicate a global sugar deficit of 200,000 MT for the 2026/27 season, with Brazil’s sugar production expected to drop by 3% to 42.5 MMT and Thailand’s by 15.6% to 9.5 MMT. India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, has seen a monsoon rainfall deficit of 12% this season, with forecasts predicting one of the weakest monsoons in 17 years. As a countermeasure, India has permitted raw sugar imports of up to 1 MMT without taxes until October 31, further underscoring supply constraints in the global market.
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