**Sugar Prices Surge on Supply Concerns**
On Wednesday, October NY world sugar #11 closed up 1.15%, reaching a seven-week high, while August London ICE white sugar #5 increased by 1.75%, marking a 9.75-month high. The surge in prices is attributed to fears over reduced yields in India, where monsoon rains are 38% below normal as of July 1, potentially impacting the country’s sugarcane harvest.
As of June 11, Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27 was revised down by 2.0% year-on-year to 6.838 million metric tons (MMT) as sugar mills shift to ethanol production. Additionally, the emergence of an El Niño weather pattern poses further risks to global sugar outputs, impacting the world’s largest producers: Brazil, India, and Thailand. The U.S. NOAA estimates a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could disrupt rainfall patterns and exacerbate supply issues.
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