**Coffee Prices Decline Amid Global Supply Surplus**
Coffee prices hit three-month lows on September 25, 2023, with December arabica coffee down 1.48% to $4.10 and November ICE robusta coffee down 2.52% to $84. This drop follows the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) projection of a record 2025/26 global coffee crop at 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year-over-year, contributing to a 3 million bag surplus, the first in five years.
Brazil’s coffee exports surged 31% year-over-year in August to a record 4.155 million bags, while Vietnam’s coffee exports for January to August increased 13.7% to 1.33 million metric tons. Additionally, robusta inventories peaked at a 9.75-month high of 5,088 lots, exacerbating downward pressure on prices, while arabica inventories rose to 258,415 bags, a 1.5-month high, amidst production concerns in light of a potentially severe El Niño weather pattern.
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