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December arabica coffee prices fell by $0.55 (-0.14%) and January ICE robusta coffee dropped by $5 (-0.11%) today, marking a second day of declining prices. The drop follows U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement regarding forthcoming significant tariff changes that could affect non-U.S. crops, including coffee.
According to StoneX’s forecast for the 2026/27 season, Brazil is expected to produce 70.7 million bags of coffee, a 29% increase from the previous year. Additionally, Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to October 2025 rose 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons, with production projected to climb 6% to 1.76 million metric tons in 2025/26, a four-year high.
ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 1.75-year low of 404,930 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a 3.75-month low of 5,760 lots. The International Coffee Organization reported a 0.3% decrease in global coffee exports year-on-year, totaling 138.658 million bags for the current marketing year.
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