As of today, major US stock indexes are experiencing declines: the S&P 500 Index is down 0.47%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down 1.09%. Chipmakers and AI stocks have fallen back after recent gains, influenced by a weaker-than-expected June ADP employment change, which reported a rise of 98,000 versus an expected 120,000. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Chair provided no guidance on interest rates during a meeting in Portugal.
In the mortgage market, US MBA mortgage applications remained unchanged for the week ending June 26. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased slightly to 6.57%. Earnings forecasts for Q2 suggest a potential increase of 23%, with AI infrastructure expected to contribute significantly. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices have reached a 4.25-month low, amidst U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a report showing 35 oil and gas tankers exited the Persian Gulf.
Internationally, the Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.82%, while China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%. The Eurozone’s June CPI eased to 2.8%, with core CPI at 2.4%. The ECB anticipates varied risks to inflation and growth following recent drops in crude oil prices, with swaps discounting a 6% chance of an ECB rate hike at the upcoming meeting.
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