Tesla and Rivian: Projecting 2026 EV Stock Performance

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Tesla vs. Rivian: 2025 Performance and 2026 Prospects

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) remains the leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, but Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is gaining ground, with its stock up over 23% year-to-date compared to Tesla’s 10% increase as of late 2025. Tesla faced operational challenges in 2025, reporting a drop in revenue and automotive deliveries early in the year, although it saw improvement in Q3. The company’s adjusted earnings per share fell by 31%, and its gross margin declined due to decreased sales of regulatory credits.

Meanwhile, Rivian achieved significant milestones, including two consecutive quarters of positive gross margins and a $1 billion investment from Volkswagen. The company is set to launch its smaller R2 SUV in 2026, aiming for higher production volumes and gross margins, which could enhance its market position. Tesla’s continued reliance on its robotaxi initiative, currently being tested in Austin, Texas, could define its success in the coming year, as CEO Elon Musk projects full autonomy for the service by year-end.

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