Tesla Q4 Sales Preview
Tesla (TSLA) is set to release its Q4 sales numbers around January 27 or 28, 2026, just ahead of its earnings report on January 28. Wall Street analysts project deliveries to fall between 450,000 and 455,000 vehicles, a significant dip from the previous quarter’s record of approximately 500,000 deliveries and 447,000 in production.
Sales Decline Factors
In November, Tesla’s vehicle sales dropped to around 40,000, marking a 23% year-over-year decrease. Factors contributing to this decline include slowed EV demand, increased competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers like BYD and Nio, and a “pull forward” effect from the EV tax credit expiring in Q3 2025. Betting markets estimate Q4 sales could be as low as 400,000 to 425,000 vehicles, with a 44% chance of this outcome.
Market Sentiment
Despite lowered expectations, Tesla’s stock recently reached an all-time closing high, indicating that investors may be looking past near-term sales softness due to improving brand metrics and renewed strength in the Chinese market. The Model Y recently became the top-selling vehicle in China, with the premium Model Y L gaining traction among consumers.
