As managing partner of The Future Fund LLC, Gary Black drew a striking comparison between Tesla Inc’s 2019 and 2024 stock performance, inducing a sense of déjà vu that has raised eyebrows among investors and struck fear in the hearts of short sellers.
Parallel Paths: 2019 vs. 2024
Reflecting on the past, Tesla’s anticipation of launching the Model Y in 2019 mirrors its current trajectory, with plans for new vehicle releases and a promise of more accessible models, slated for production kickoff in the first half of 2025.
In the past, skeptics dismissed the Model Y as merely a larger Model 3, failing to foresee its impact in the hot-selling CUV segment where it swiftly soared to the top, now reigning as Tesla’s best-seller.
Future Perspectives: Tackling Critics With Innovation
Casting his gaze toward the horizon, Black predicts that Tesla’s upcoming affordable model will not cannibalize the Model 3 as shorts fear, but rather expand the company’s reach, echoing the success story of the Model Y that confounded critics and propelled earnings estimates ahead of the stock price in 2020.
Impending Surge Toward 2025
Black envisions a repeat surge in Tesla’s stock price upon the launch of the new affordable vehicle, akin to the 2020 boom sparked by the Model Y release, as positive earnings revisions once again take the helm, steering the stock to higher altitudes.
Shaping the Market Landscape
Tesla recently disclosed plans during its second-quarter earnings report to manufacture the upcoming affordable vehicle on existing production lines, aiming to democratize electric mobility further. Although specifics on pricing are pending, Black estimates a range between $25,000 and $30,000, undercutting the current entry-level Model 3 which starts at $38,990 in the U.S.
Market Reflection: Resilience Amidst Volatility
Facing a 2.3% dip to $238.25 in closing on Friday, Tesla stock remains knee-deep in a 4% year-to-date slump, as per Benzinga Pro data, illustrating the trials and tribulations of the market terrain.
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