TradeSmith’s analysis indicates that a significant bullish trading window in the S&P 500 is set to close on July 23, coinciding with major earnings reports from Tesla, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft. The company’s seasonality software, which has a successful backtest rate of 83%, has identified this critical period which, in past years, has resulted in a choppy market following its closure.
From June 29 to July 30, Google stock (GOOGL) has historically increased in value 14 out of the last 15 years, averaging a return of 8.7%. Similarly, Deckers Outdoor (DECK) shows strong seasonal performance with an average return of 3.5% during its next bullish window from July 29 to August 14.
TradeSmith’s 18-year backtest revealed that their seasonal trading strategy yielded a total return of 857%, significantly outperforming the 412% return of the S&P 500 over the same period. This data highlights the impact of timing on investment strategies, particularly as the market transitions into a bearish pattern at the end of July.
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