The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 1.2% increase in global coal demand, reaching 8.94 billion tons by 2026, due to factors such as the ongoing Middle East crisis and a strong El Niño weather pattern. This reversal comes despite a decline in coal usage within U.S. thermal power plants, where production is projected to fall to 516 million short tons in 2026 from 528 million in 2025.
Currently, five U.S. states account for approximately 70% of annual coal production, with coal expected to contribute 16% of U.S. electricity generation in 2026, a decrease from 17% in 2025. Conversely, the Zacks Coal industry ranks #59 out of 247 industries, indicating a solid near-term outlook due to improving earnings estimates for coal producers like Core Natural Resources, Alliance Resource Partners, and SunCoke Energy.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates an 8% decline in coal demand from electric utilities in 2026 and further decreases thereafter, primarily driven by the rise of renewable energy sources. Despite these challenges, coal continues to provide a dependable energy source, particularly in developing economies where electricity demand is surging.
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