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The U.S. federal government officially shut down on October 1, 2025, after lawmakers failed to reach a budget agreement. Over a dozen government shutdowns have occurred since 1980, with an average duration of one week, typically having minimal impact on Wall Street.
According to the Conference Board, September’s consumer confidence survey revealed the lowest optimism since April. On October 1, ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs for the month, contrary to the expected gain of 45,000, marking the worst job performance since March 2023. The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report is anticipated to show a modest addition of 43,000 jobs for September with an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.
Furthermore, Challenger, Gray & Christmas predicts that seasonal retail hiring could fall to under 500,000 positions in the last three months of 2025, the lowest in 16 years, largely due to automation and inflationary pressures.
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