Traders Assess 49% Likelihood of SpaceX and Tesla Merger in the Next Year

Avatar photo

Elon Musk’s Companies Considering Merger

Traders on Kalshi are estimating a 49% probability that Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) will merge with Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) by May 1, 2027. This speculation intensified following SpaceX’s IPO on June 12, with analysts suggesting an 80% chance of a merger. Both companies are led by Musk and have a strong reliance on artificial intelligence.

As of 2025, SpaceX holds a market cap of approximately $2.2 trillion, while Tesla’s market cap is around $1.5 trillion. Tesla reported revenues of $94.82 billion and net income of $5.8 billion in 2025, whereas SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue but incurred a net loss of $4.9 billion.

The merging of Tesla and SpaceX could unlock significant synergies, particularly in AI, but challenges such as differing business models and Musk’s compensation packages will need to be addressed before any deal can materialize.

5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year

By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.

The free Daily Market Overview 250k traders and investors are reading

Read Now