The 10-year Treasury bond marked its best week since August, as investors fleeing from riskier assets drove yields below 4%. This trend towards safe-haven investments led to a notable rise in Treasury prices.

With market participants seeking security, funds have flowed into government bonds, significantly boosting the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT.

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

Currently, TLT shows a year-to-date increase of 6.53% and a 2.03% rise over the past month. Technically, it appears robust, trading above its five-, 20-, and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating bullish signals. Additionally, its eight-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages confirm this momentum.

Nevertheless, the relative strength index (RSI) now stands at 67.88, signaling that TLT is nearing overbought territory, raising concerns about a potential sell-off.

Read also: Treasury Bonds Have Lost 50% In 5 Years, Yet Reversal Signals Emerge In Q1: Could Tariffs Actually Push TLT Higher?

Recent tariff announcements from Trump have also impacted markets, causing both stocks and the dollar to falter. According to Nicolas Trindade of AXA Investment Managers, “U.S. Treasury yields have been falling sharply as investors rotate out of risk assets into safe havens.” This shift indicates a return to a typical risk-off trade; bond demand increases during periods of stock market struggles.

Fraser Lundie of Aviva Investors describes this shift as a positive adjustment, asserting, “The return of a negative correlation between bonds and risk assets is a sign traditional relationships are reasserting themselves.” This is a significant departure from 2022, when both stocks and bonds faced declines together.

As Treasuries continue their upward momentum and TLT gains traction, the outlook appears positive. However, with growing selling pressure and existing economic uncertainties, investors may need to monitor technical indicators closely.

If bond yields reverse direction, TLT could quickly enter a turbulent phase just as swiftly as it has risen.

At this moment, bond bulls are clearly enjoying the upward trend.

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