The U.S. auto retail and wholesale industry is experiencing a subdued outlook due to affordability issues, with the average transaction price for new vehicles reaching $49,353 in February 2026. Sales are projected to decline nearly 12% year-over-year in March, marking a drop from the previous surge, with monthly sales expected to hit 1.37 million units. Analysts predict full-year 2026 sales will drop by 2.6% to 15.8 million units.
Geopolitical tensions and a challenging electric vehicle market are adding to the uncertainty. Prolonged conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, have raised fuel prices, which could further weaken consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, EV sales are projected to decline nearly 28% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, contrasting with steady growth in hybrid vehicles.
The Zacks Auto Retail & Wholesale industry carries a rank of #213, placing it in the bottom 13% of nearly 245 Zacks industries, reflecting a negative earnings outlook with an 8% decline in estimated earnings for 2026 over the past year. Stocks like Penske Automotive (PAG) and AutoNation (AN) are better positioned within the industry, thanks to strategic acquisitions and digital initiatives.
