In August 1854, a cholera outbreak in Soho, London, killed hundreds of people, fueling speculation about its causes. While authorities blamed “bad air,” physician John Snow discovered a correlation between illness and contaminated water from a public pump, leading to the removal of the pump handle and the end of the outbreak. This historic example underscores how complex systems can reveal structured patterns when studied over time.
TradeSmith, led by CEO Keith Kaplan, has developed software to identify similar seasonal patterns in the stock market. Their research indicates that individual stocks, like Target and Home Depot, experience predictable price movements during specific periods, with Target’s stock rising 100% of the time between June 22 and July 21 over the past 15 years.
The firm’s analysis boasts historical gains, averaging 857% in total growth over 18 years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. As new seasonal cycles approach, TradeSmith emphasizes the value of their seasonality tool, inviting investors to leverage these insights for future trading strategies.
