Uncovering the Overlooked Risks in the Tesla Bear Argument

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Tesla Delivery Decline and Future Challenges

Tesla reported a nearly 16% drop in fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries year-over-year, totaling approximately 418,000 vehicles, contributing to a full-year total of 1.64 million for 2025, an 8.6% decrease from the previous year. The company’s production also fell sequentially in Q4 from about 447,000 vehicles in Q3 to 434,000.

Looking ahead, Tesla’s management anticipates a significant increase in capital expenditures, projecting around $9 billion for the current year, with expectations of further substantial growth in 2026 in line with its investments in AI and the planned Robotaxi service. This financial strategy raises concerns about the potential high costs and competitive landscape of the autonomous ride-sharing market, already seeing competition from tech giants and existing ride-sharing companies.

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