Unlocking Options Opportunities: The Impact of NDX Outperformance in the Summer Rally

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Market Performance Overview

As of June 2023, the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) has outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX), gaining 20.3% compared to the S&P’s 10.2%. In Q2 alone, NDX surged nearly 28%, while SPX increased by 15.2%. Key contributors to NDX’s performance included major technology firms, especially in the semiconductor sector. Over the past decade, NDX has nearly doubled the returns of the S&P 500.

Current data reveals a strong correlation between NDX and SPX, with a 50-day correlation of 0.917, aligning with the 15-year average. As of July 2023, the VXN index, measuring NDX volatility, is at a 77% premium to the VIX index of the S&P 500, the widest spread since 2002. This indicates heightened expectations for volatility in NDX compared to SPX, as tech stocks typically exhibit greater movement.

Looking ahead, investors are advised to monitor the upcoming SK Hynix ADR listing on the Nasdaq and the performance of leveraged ETFs, especially those linked to NDX. Historical trends show July is often strong for equity performance, making it vital to understand risks associated with current market dynamics.

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