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Key Market Developments:
In the first half of 2025, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both achieved new all-time highs, with the S&P 500 showing an average earnings growth of 17.8% in Q4 2024 and 12.9% in Q1 2025. The stock market has experienced significant volatility, yet staged a recovery between late April and June.
Key events include President Trump’s signing of Executive Order #14179 aimed at enhancing American AI dominance, amidst ongoing trade tensions marked by the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries including a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, implemented in February and March 2025. Significant geopolitical developments include a 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025.
Looking ahead, analysts anticipate a positive earnings season in July with projected S&P 500 earnings growth of 5%, down from earlier estimates of 9.4%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to hold a meeting this month, with discussions surrounding potential interest rate cuts as inflation remains below expectations.
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