On Friday, May Nymex natural gas (NGK26) closed down 0.022, or 0.82%, marking a fresh 7.5-month low for nearest-futures pricing. This decline is largely attributed to forecasts from the Commodity Weather Group predicting above-average temperatures across the eastern U.S. through April 19, which could reduce heating demand.
According to BNEF, U.S. dry gas production was 111.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) on Friday, up 3.9% year-over-year, while demand dropped to 68.3 bcf/day, a decrease of 9.7% year-over-year. The EIA has raised its 2026 production forecast to 109.59 bcf/day. Additionally, inventories for the week ending April 3 rose by 50 bcf, surpassing expectations, indicating ample supplies, as inventories were up 4.4% year-over-year.
In related news, a report from Qatar indicated significant damage at the Ras Laffan gas export plant, affecting 17% of its capacity, which could impact global LNG supplies for the next three to five years. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported a decline in active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs, falling to 127, down from a high of 134 rigs in late February.
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