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On Thursday, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down by $1.95 (-0.48%), while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) fell by $23 (-0.53%). This marks the second consecutive day of declining prices, partly due to an anticipated announcement from Treasury Secretary Bessent regarding potential US tariff cuts on coffee. Additionally, Brazil’s projected production for the 2026/27 season is 70.7 million bags, a 29% increase compared to last year.
Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, received 72.1 mm of rain during the week ending November 7, easing prior drought concerns. However, robusta coffee prices are pressured by increased Vietnamese exports, which rose 13.4% year-over-year to 1.31 million metric tons in the January-October 2025 period.
ICE coffee inventories have fallen to record lows, with arabica stocks at 403,430 bags (1.75-year low) and robusta stocks at 5,760 lots (3.75-month low). Additionally, the International Coffee Organization reported a 0.3% year-over-year decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, totaling 138.658 million bags.
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