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On Monday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) closed down 23 points (-0.44%) at $5,207, while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) fell by 60 points (-1.47%) to $4,042. These declines followed the Trump administration’s announcement that it dropped a 10% reciprocal tariff on non-U.S. grown commodities, including cocoa, although Brazil’s cocoa exports will remain subject to a 40% national security tariff.
Cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer, decreased by 5.7% year-on-year to 516,787 MT from October 1 to November 16, 2023. Meanwhile, cocoa inventories in U.S. ports shrank to a 7.75-month low of 1,766,644 bags. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projects a 2023/24 global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, while also expecting 2024/25 to show a surplus of 142,000 MT.
Weak global demand is influencing cocoa prices, with the Cocoa Association of Asia reporting a 17% year-on-year drop in Q3 grindings to 183,413 MT, the lowest for that quarter in nine years.
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