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On Wednesday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) closed down -204 (-3.50%), reaching a 1.75-year low, while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) rose +17 (+0.41%). This decline was influenced by potential tariff cuts on non-US crops, as announced by US Treasury Secretary Bessent, with further details expected in the coming days.
Cocoa prices are also affected by expectations of a bumper cocoa crop in West Africa. The latest reports indicate that cocoa pod counts in West Africa are 7% above the five-year average, significantly higher than last year’s crop. However, weak global cocoa demand is a concern, highlighted by a -17% year-on-year decrease in Q3 cocoa grindings in Asia and a -4.8% drop in Europe, with North American chocolate sales volume down over -21% compared to last year.
Additionally, cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast have slowed, with shipments at 411,979 MT from October 1 to November 8, a -9% decline from the previous year. The International Cocoa Organization projects a global cocoa deficit of -494,000 MT for the 2023/24 season, the largest in over 60 years, while also estimating a surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25.
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