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On Monday, December Nymex natural gas (NGZ25) closed down by 4.95%, falling by -0.226 due to warmer-than-normal weather forecasts in the eastern US for the week of November 22-26. This decline was further influenced by high US gas production and inventories, with current US natural gas production near record levels at 110.0 bcf/day, reflecting a 7.1% increase year-over-year.
The weekly EIA report indicated nat-gas inventories for the week ending November 7 rose by 45 bcf, surpassing the market consensus of 34 bcf and the 5-year weekly average of 35 bcf. Current inventories are 4.5% above the 5-year seasonal average, while gas storage in Europe is 82% full compared to a 5-year average of 91%.
Baker Hughes reported a decrease in active US nat-gas drilling rigs, which fell by 3 to 125 for the week ending November 14, marking a retreat from the 2.25-year high of 128 rigs recorded on November 7. In the past year, this figure has increased from a low of 94 rigs in September 2024.
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