On September 20, 2023, coffee prices saw declines, with September arabica coffee (KCU26) down 2.23% to $308.15 and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) down 2.27% to $3,688.94. The drop was influenced by a USDA forecast indicating a 6% increase in global coffee output in the 2026-27 season, reaching a record 189.7 million bags, primarily due to better growing conditions in Brazil. Arabica production is projected to rise 12% year-on-year, while robusta output is expected to see a slight decline of 0.7%.
As of July 17, Brazil’s coffee harvest completion stands at 47.3%, trailing behind last year’s 59%. In a bearish trend for robusta coffee, ICE robusta inventories rose to a four-month high of 4,254 lots. However, arabica inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 320,615 bags, indicating potential price support for arabica. Additionally, concerns over the El Niño weather pattern affecting Brazil’s crop health may influence future coffee prices.
Vietnam’s coffee exports for the first half of 2026 increased by 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons, adding further pressure on robusta prices. Projections also indicate a 6% rise in Vietnam’s 2025/26 production to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).
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