Soybeans Show Weakness Despite USDA Yield Revisions

As of midday Friday, soybean prices have dipped, even with a slightly revised lower yield estimate from the USDA. Currently, contracts are down by 6 to 7 cents. The CmdtyView national front month Cash Bean price has fallen by 6 cents to $9.46. Meanwhile, soy meal has increased by 20 cents per ton today, although Soy Oil futures have decreased by 23 points during the session.

Export Activity

The USDA reported a private export sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations this morning. This has added some activity to the market, but the overall effects are currently muted.

US Crop Production Overview

In this morning’s Crop Production data, the USDA slightly lowered the US soybean yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre (bpa), which is a decrease of 0.1 from last month. This adjustment has led to a reduction in the total US production by 4 million bushels to a total of 4.582 billion bushels. It’s important to note that the surveys were conducted after Hurricane Helene impacted the region; thus, “the full impact from the storm may not be reflected until future reports,” according to NASS. The carryover for the 2023/24 season has increased by 2 million bushels, keeping the 2024/25 US stocks total at 550 million bushels, unchanged from the previous month since adjustments were made to residuals by the World Ag Outlook Board.

Global Supply Insights

Looking at the global market, the monthly WASDE report showed no changes to soybean output forecasts for South America. However, world ending stocks saw a slight increase of 0.07 million metric tons, reaching a total of 134.65 million metric tons.

Current Soybean Prices

As for current pricing, the following are the latest figures:

• November 24 Soybeans: $10.08 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents
• Nearby Cash: $9.46, down 6 cents
• January 25 Soybeans: $10.24 1/2, down 7 cents
• May 25 Soybeans: $10.53 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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