Valero Energy Faces Mixed Results Amid Market Fluctuations

San Antonio, Texas-based Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) manufactures, markets, and sells a range of petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels, along with petrochemical products globally. With a market cap of $40.9 billion, the company operates through three main segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol.

Stock Performance Overview

Over the past 52 weeks, shares of VLO have significantly underperformed compared to the broader market. VLO’s stock has declined by 13.4%, while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has increased by 12.7%. In contrast, year-to-date, VLO has seen a positive return of 10.2%, outpacing the S&P’s modest gains during the same period.

Comparative Industry Analysis

Digging deeper, VLO has also outperformed the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), which has experienced a 18.3% decline over the past year and 9.5% gains expected in 2025.

Quarterly Report Highlights

Following the release of its mixed Q1 2025 results on April 24, Valero Energy’s stock fell by 1%. The company reported a 4.7% year-over-year decrease in revenue, totaling $30.3 billion, although this figure surpassed analyst expectations by 6.3%. On the downside, the adjusted EPS fell by 76.8% year-over-year to $0.89, yet exceeded consensus estimates of $0.43.

In a positive stride, Valero increased its quarterly dividend by 5.6% compared to the previous year, raising it to $1.13 per share, reinforcing its commitment to shareholders.

Future Earnings Projections

For the current fiscal year ending December 2025, analysts project that VLO’s adjusted EPS will drop by approximately 30.1% year-over-year to $5.93. Historically, the company has shown a mixed earnings surprise record, beating bottom-line estimates in three of the past four quarters while missing on one occasion.

Analyst Recommendations

Among the 18 analysts covering Valero Energy, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy,” based on 15 Strong Buy ratings and three Holds. This sentiment is slightly more favorable compared to last month, when one analyst recommended a “Strong Sell.”

On May 13, Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst Neil Mehta raised Valero’s price target to $154 and upgraded the stock to a “Buy” rating. The current mean price target of $142.50 suggests a modest 5.5% premium to current levels, while the highest target of $158 indicates significant upside potential of 16.9%.

On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not hold (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data are for informational purposes only. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.