On Thursday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed up by +274 (+5.51%), while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) rose by +173 (+4.63%), reaching 5.5-month highs due to concerns over West African cocoa crop conditions. Heavy rains in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have adversely impacted farmers’ access, with rainfall accumulation already nearing typical averages for June.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, likely reducing soil moisture and stressing cocoa yields. Concurrently, the Ivory Coast reported a significant increase in cocoa shipments, with 1.95 million metric tons (MMT) so far this season, up +18.9% year-on-year, although production is expected to drop -10.8% in 2025/26.
Global cocoa inventories reached a 1.75-year high of 2,948,286 bags, while demand has weakened, with North American cocoa grindings down -3.8% year-on-year and European grindings down -7.8%. In contrast, Asian grindings rose by +5.2%. Production projections from Nigeria and Ghana indicate tightening supplies, thereby providing some upward support for cocoa prices.
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