On Thursday, May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) closed down by $114 (-3.32%), while May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) decreased by $79 (-3.18%). This decline follows forecasts from Vaisala, anticipating continued rainfall in West Africa, which is expected to enhance cocoa crop yields. Currently, ICE cocoa inventories have reached a seven-month high of 2,251,404 bags.
Recent data reflects a concerning demand outlook, with Barry Callebaut AG reporting a 22% decline in cocoa sales volume for the quarter ending November 30, 2022. Furthermore, the European Cocoa Association noted a significant 8.3% year-over-year drop in Q4 cocoa grinding to 304,470 MT, the lowest for a Q4 in 12 years. Meanwhile, Ivory Coast farmers have shipped 1.35 million metric tons of cocoa this marketing year, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous year.
Amid these market dynamics, projections from the Ivory Coast indicate a 10.8% decline in cocoa production for 2025/26, expected to fall to 1.65 MMT. Conversely, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has raised its global cocoa surplus estimate for 2024/25 to 75,000 MT, marking the first surplus in four years.
