May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) is down 1.73% at $59 today, with May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) down 2.16% at $54. Cocoa prices are facing downward pressure due to improved supply forecasts, as recent rains in West Africa have positively affected pod development. ICE cocoa inventories reached a 7.25-month high of 2,273,550 bags, further contributing to the decline.
Demand concerns have intensified as global chocolate consumption wanes. Barry Callebaut AG reported a 22% decline in its cocoa sales volume for the quarter ending November 30, while Q4 European cocoa grindings fell 8.3% year-over-year, the lowest in 12 years. The International Cocoa Organization also updated its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT, a notable increase from a previous estimate of 49,000 MT.
Additionally, cocoa deliveries from the Ivory Coast are down 2.8% year-over-year, with only 1.37 million metric tons shipped from October 2025 to mid-March 2026. In the context of fluctuating production, the Ivory Coast predicted a 10.8% drop in cocoa output for the next season, while Nigeria reported a 17% increase in cocoa exports for December 2025.
